MNAs PAY ATTENTION TO THE ODDS
MNAs fund sailors' campaigns in the Olympic events, when the odds of gaining an Olympic Regatta entry are in their favor.
MNAs are subject to their National Olympic Committee's standards. And, NOC's 'pay for performance';
they do not send 'low chance, or no chance' athletes to the Olympics.
The average odds at Cascais were just about 2 to 1, a 67% probability that an MNA will get an Olympic Regatta entry.
| Best Odds |
Average Odds |
Worst Odds |
| RS:X W |
97% |
RS:X M |
68% |
470 W |
56% |
| Finn |
74% |
Laser |
67% |
Laser Radial |
52% |
| Yngling |
71% |
Tornado |
69% |
Star |
50% |
|
|
49er |
61% |
|
|
|
|
470 M |
64% |
|
|
None of the events had worse than 50/50 odds; nor did any event at the 2003 Olympic Qualification Regatta in Cadiz.
Over time, only sailors who are competing without any MNA support cause the odds to stay as low as even odds,
or a 50% probability.
ISAF directly affects the likely level of MNA participation as soon as it sets the Fleet sizes for the next Olympic Games.
MNA PARTICIPATION OPPORTUNITY IN 2012
In 2012, there will be: 10 events - a reduction of 1 event; and 380 sailors - a reduction of 20 sailors.
Despite these reductions, ISAF's stated goal is 70 countries - an increase of 9 countries from Athens.
ISAF's report on how these numbers are best achieved states:
| > |
190 competitors in the 4 one-person Type 1 events |
| > |
190 competitors in the 6 other events; fleets limited to 16-20 |
| > |
If more than 190 competitors enter the Type 1 events, the other fleet sizes are further reduced |
These changes will flow through to MNA funding of their sailors.
For example, if the 470 Men's fleet is reduced from 30 entries (e.g. 2008) to 18 entries, there will inevitably be a change in MNA funding.
HOW THE NUMBERS ADD UP FOR 2012
The Tables to the right show:
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The actual MNA participation in the 2004 Olympic Regatta - 1 Person events are where the country count comes from. |
| > |
An example model of MNA participation in 2012; 10 Events, 380 sailors, and increases in the Windurfing and Type 1 Single-handed Dinghy Event entries |
